Key points
- Microsoft shares have taken a breather since topping $400 in January.
- However, fresh calls for further gains emerged last week, with one analyst calling for $500.
- After consolidating around January’s record close, Microsoft shares are poised to make this type of move in the coming weeks.
- 5 titles that we prefer to those of Microsoft
Given that stocks, in general, are enjoying their best performance in years, it will come as no surprise to most consumers that technology stocks, in particular, are performing well. Much of this has to do with encouraging signs that inflation has been tamed, as that motivates the Fed to cut interest rates, which in turn helps debt-heavy tech stocks.
But with so many stocks already back trading at all-time highs, a feat that seemed almost impossible just a couple of months ago, you’d be forgiven for wondering how much room they have to run.
Take Microsoft Inc NASDAQ:MSFT For example. Last summer, the tech titan was one of the first tech stocks to recapture its 2021 high, but since November it has fueled new stocks seemingly on a weekly basis. The stock crossed the $400 mark for the first time less than two months ago, but instead of thinking this is where it will take a breather, investors should be even more excited about its prospects. In fact, there are several reasons to think that $400 was just the latest milestone in what is currently a 90% rally, with the stock already targeting $500.
New bullish comments
Just last week we saw bullish comments from some of the top analysts calling for the stock to rise above $400 in the near term. This was the position, for example, of the guys at Jefferies, who last Wednesday reiterated their buy rating on Microsoft shares and, with a price target of $465, called for an immediate upside of around 15%.
This came after they attended the Microsoft 365 co-pilot briefing and left feeling super bullish. There has already been strong adoption of the new tool within IT departments, and this bodes well for the company’s revenue prospects in the coming quarters. They also see Microsoft stock continuing to benefit from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and note that even with the recent run-up, Microsoft still has an attractive valuation compared to its competitors.
Their bullish outlook echoed that of the DA Davidson team, which also reiterated its buy rating on Tuesday but gave Microsoft shares a high price target of $500. For Microsoft, receiving these types of calls isn’t bad at all, especially considering that up until eight weeks ago it was still trading around $300.
Beyond the bullish forecasts of respected analysts, Microsoft’s case as a $500 stock is also strengthened by the improvement in the technical configuration of its shares. Having run so hard since November, simply getting to the $400 point could have been a goal in and of itself, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the stock retreated from here as the first real test. But instead, since they first broke above the level in late January, they have reared their heads as high as $420, but have mostly consolidated.
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While some investors may understandably be frustrated that further gains have not materialized as with other tech stocks, such as NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA, technically, this is actually very promising. Every day that Microsoft stock stays above $400, even if that means it trades flat or sideways, is another day that that level is strengthened as a serious support line. If there is any volatility in the coming weeks, be it Microsoft or a specific market, with nearly two months of consolidation behind us, you can be sure that the $400 line will not be abandoned easily.
This also meant that the stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) took a breather. After breaking above $400 in late January, it was near $80, indicating extremely overbought conditions. But the consolidation has allowed it to cool considerably, and with a current value of 55, Microsoft has plenty of room to run north once it decides to break out.
Look for momentum to increase supply in the coming week, with last month’s high of $420 the first target. After that, things could get very interesting very quickly.
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