Ahead of Super Tuesday on March 5, Virginia voters appear to be strongly in favor Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primaries, even if he does not enjoy as much support in a hypothetical clash against the President Joe Biden in the general elections.
2024 General Election: Forty-seven percent of Virginia voters chose Biden compared to 43% who chose Trump, according to the results of the latest Roanoke College poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research between Feb. 11 and 19. The survey surveyed 705 adult residents of the state.
If Trump were to be replaced by the South Carolina Govr Nikki Haley as a presidential candidate, she would prevail over Biden by a 49%-40% margin.
Interestingly, the percentage of respondents who said they would consider voting for an independent candidate in the November 5 election increased by five points compared to last November, reaching 50%.
When asked about the most important electoral issues, 27% mentioned jobs and the economy, while immigration, inflation and abortion were respectively. were mentioned by 17%, 13% and 9% of respondents.
“Our state is generally considered a swing state or one that leans slightly to the left. Biden’s favorability rating of 35% now versus 37% four years ago is relatively unchanged, but his unfavorability rating (61% now versus 37% in 2020) has nearly doubled and nearly matches favorable ratings /unfavorable to Trump in 2020 and in this 2024 poll,” he said David Taylor, director of IPOR and professor of mathematics at Roanoke College.
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Republican primaries: Despite Haley’s better position than Trump in hypothetical matchups against Biden, Virginians appear to support the latter in the Republican presidential primaries, which will be held on March 5.
Trump led Haley by a margin of 75% to 15%, while 8% said they would vote for someone else. Since November, Trump’s support has increased by 24% and Haley’s by 5%, while other candidates, including Florida’s governor, have increased by 24%. Ron De Santis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy abandoned the race.
When asked their second choice for candidate, 6% chose Trump, 25% chose Haley and 56% said they would prefer someone else.
About 56% of respondents said they were very or somewhat likely to vote on Super Tuesday. Looking only at likely voters, Trump’s lead over Haley shrunk to eight points (51%-43%).
“Trump has a 62-point lead among Republicans and Haley has a 10-point lead among independents, so while a Trump victory is the likely outcome, Haley will capture many of Virginia’s 48 delegates up for grabs,” Taylor said.
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