A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows the former president Donald Trump top president Joe Biden by five percentage points, a result that was greeted with skepticism by some Democrats.
A spokesperson for Biden’s campaign criticized the poll, suggesting that it “consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating Joe Biden,” highlighting a broader distrust in polling accuracy among Democrats, The Hill reported.
This skepticism is not unfounded, as Democrats have pointed out various instances where Trump’s polling numbers did not translate into electoral success. They cited primary results in which Trump underperformed and elections under Biden’s presidency in which Democrats exceeded expectations.
Speaking to The Hill, Democratic strategist Simone Rosenberg echoed this sentiment, saying the strength of Trump’s support is being overestimated.
Particular scrutiny was given to New York Times poll results regarding voter demographics.
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For example, the poll’s suggestion that women are evenly split between Trump and Biden raised eyebrows among Democratic strategists, considering Biden’s significant lead among women in 2020 exit polls.
Democrats also said the poll’s claim that Trump is leading among Latino voters appears inconsistent with Biden’s significant lead among this demographic during the 2020 election.
Despite these concerns, Biden’s campaign has remained confident, drawing on historical voting patterns and recent election victories as evidence of his competitive advantage.
Democrats have managed to win key victories in the face of perceived “red waves,” with notable successes in Senate races, gubernatorial elections and the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, often leveraging abortion rights as a central issue.
While some Democrats have argued that Trump’s actual election performance has often fallen short of poll predictions, others have pointed to instances in which he has exceeded expectations, particularly in the 2016 presidential race.
As the election approaches, both parties are gearing up for a hotly contested race, with national polls indicating a close battle on the horizon.
Now read: Trump vs. Biden: One candidate appears to be losing support within the party, raising electability concerns
This content was partially produced with the help of artificial intelligence tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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