Poll finds Trump will lose if convicted

A close election would turn into a five-point victory for Joe Biden if Donald Trump is convicted of a crime before Election Day.

What happens if Trump is convicted of a crime?

The NPR/Marist poll found that Trump will lose to Joe Biden if he is convicted of a crime.

NPR reported:

Biden (48%) and Trump (47%) are competitive among registered voters nationwide. Breakdown of independents for Trump: 50% to 42% for Biden. Among those who have an unfavorable view of Biden and Trump, Biden (43%) has a 4 percentage point lead over Trump (39%). 18% of these voters are undecided.

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If Trump were convicted of criminal charges, Biden (51%) would have a six percentage point lead over Trump (45%) among registered voters. The gap narrows among independents, with 47% supporting Trump and 45% supporting Biden. Nearly one in ten Republicans (9%) would support Biden.

Trump’s criminal charges matter to general election voters

The point of the NPR/Marist poll is that the media, pollsters and the pundit class may be framing the election the wrong way. The 2024 election is not about two candidates and the same issues.

The 2024 election is likely to be about Donald Trump and the criminal charges he faces.

If Trump is convicted of a crime, it’s over for the former president. There are a sizable number of non-Republican voters who will not support a convicted felon for president.

Trump can lie and discredit the cases against him every day until Election Day, but if he is convicted, he will lose.

Republicans are deluding themselves if they think a felony conviction doesn’t matter or that elections can be treated as usual.

Donald Trump is just one felony conviction away from Joe Biden winning a second term.

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