Key points
- Kohl’s is undervalued and yields more than 7% with a catalyst for a higher stock price close.
- Analysts underestimate fourth quarter performance; driving can impress.
- Institutions are focusing on this name ahead of earnings and have put a cap on the market.
- 5 Stocks We Like Better Than Kohl’s
Kohl Corporation New York Stock Exchange: KSS the stock price remained near long-term lows, despite signs of a turnaround and improving cash flow prospects. This market needs a catalyst to get going again, and there is one at hand. Results from TJX Companies New York Stock Exchange: TJX suggest strength in the off-price universe, and analysts have set a low bar for Kohl’s, which will report mid-month.
Analysts underestimate Kohl’s strengths and value
Analysts expect Kohl’s fourth-quarter revenue to decline slightly from last year, setting it up for significant outperformance. Competitors TJX grew 13% in the fourth quarter to lead the retail sector. This compares with just 3.8% for the retail sector and 5% for major operators Walmart New York Stock Exchange: WMT. Target New York Stock Exchange: TGT, which has lost share to Walmart and off-price retailers, contracted 5%. TJX Companies also significantly expanded their margin and provided solid guidance.
Kohl’s is expected to significantly improve margin, but could still beat forecasts due to expected revenue strength. In any case, analyst consensus is sufficient to support the high-yield dividend and earnings growth is expected in calendar year 2024. Kohl’s dividend is substantial, yielding more than 7% for just 11X earnings, the which represents a profound value for the sector. Off-price leader TJX Companies trades at much higher earnings of 25x.
The dividend payout is high at 80% of earnings and contributes to the valuation discrepancy, but the cash flow outlook, balance sheet and spending discipline offset the risk. Spending discipline, including a 13% reduction in third-quarter inventories, is helping improve cash flow and the balance sheet. Third quarter balance sheet highlights include a stable cash position and long-term debt reduction that is expected to be compounded in the fourth quarter. As fourth quarter margin and profitability are expected to improve again in the fourth quarter, investors should expect further balance sheet improvement to continue into 2024.
The sell side put a cap on Kohl’s price
Institutional activity is significant and can foreshadow a strong balance sheet. Institutions have been buying this stock on the balance sheet for most quarters over the past three years, and activity peaked in the first quarter. Activity to date is at a three-quarter high and the second highest in the last three years, bringing total ownership to 98%. The largest institutional holders are BlackRock and Vanguard, with about 25% of the shares, but ownership is broad and includes public pension funds and private capital.
Analyst sentiment will act as a catalyst for the market following the release. Analysts lowered ratings and price targets in 2022 and early 2023, putting intense pressure on the stock’s price, but relented over the course of the year. Analyst activity in the second half of 2023 is mixed, but includes an upgrade to Positive from Mixed, a reiterated Moderate Buy, and an equal weight equivalent initiated with a firmed price target. If the fourth quarter is strong and guidance solid, the analyst shift could gain traction and lift the price action. Until then, the consensus reported by MarketBeat aligns with the 150-day moving average, which is about 13% lower than recent action.
Technical Outlook: Kohl’s is on the verge of a turnaround
Kohl’s shares have bottomed in the last twelve months and are trading near the top of the range. The pattern suggests the bottom and the potential for reversal which will be confirmed or refuted soon. The critical level is $29, a trigger for bullish trades if exceeded. A move above that level could find resistance near $34.50, so the upside move could be limited in the near term. If the news fails to catalyze a rally, a return to the bottom of the range is expected, but would present a higher return opportunity, provided no bad news is delivered.
Before you consider Kohl’s, you’ll want to hear it out.
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