A large new poll of youth voters shows Biden leading Trump by double digits among registered and likely young voters, with the president’s lead skyrocketing if Trump is criminally convicted.
The Harvard Youth Survey found:
If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would surpass former President Trump both among registered voters (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults ages 18 to 29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16% undecided.
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A guilty verdict in any of former President Trump’s trials could have a significant impact on the youth vote. If Trump is found guilty, we find that:
- Biden’s lead among all young Americans rises from 8 to 18 points;
- Biden’s lead among young registered voters increases from 13 to 21 points;
- Biden’s lead among young likely voters increases from 19 to 28 points.
Corporate media polls showing Trump ahead among young voters were wrong, and show how far from the base these corporate media-funded polls were. When Cornell West, Jill Stein, and RFK Jr. were included in the poll, President Biden was still leading among young voters, so there is no scenario in which Donald Trump leads among young voters.
A Trump criminal conviction will be devastating for Republican hopes in November. The election is never over until the votes are counted, but the one consistency across all polls across all demographics is that a Trump criminal conviction appears to make him unelectable.
Donald Trump, much like Truth Social’s stock, has been over-inflated.
Reality is starting to set in for both of them.
Young voters won’t vote for Donald Trump, but Biden’s campaign must motivate them and show those who are concerned why the President deserves their votes in 2024.
However, there is no migration of youth votes towards Trump. If nothing else, the youth vote could end Trump’s hopes of returning to the White House.
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Jason is the managing editor. He is also a member of the White House press pool and a congressional correspondent for PoliticusUSA. Jason has a bachelor’s degree in political science. His graduate work focused on public policy, with a specialization in social reform movements.
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