BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports likely fell in March, after growing at a better-than-expected pace in the first two months of this year. A Reuters poll showed this on Thursday, highlighting an uneven recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
March trade data is expected to show outbound shipments fell 2.3% year-on-year, according to the median forecast of 34 economists, reversing some of the 7.1% increase in the January-February period.
The expected decline contrasts with robust external shipments in last month’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys, but reinforces analysts’ expectation that overall Chinese export growth will fall materially due to baseline comparison higher than a year ago.
“Vessel deadweight tonnage at the top 20 ports (including both arriving and departing) decreased by 6.2% year-on-year over the period March 1-30,” Citi said in a note earlier this month .
Exports unexpectedly increased in March last year, but the customs administration revised down March’s export value by a wide margin later in 2023.
The nation’s exporters have faced a tough time for much of last year due to weak foreign demand and tight global monetary policy.
China’s economy has gotten off to a relatively solid start this year after policymakers took support measures to boost household consumption, private investment and market confidence starting in the second half of 2023.
However, the Asian giant’s growth remains uneven and analysts do not expect a full-blown recovery anytime soon, especially due to the prolonged crisis in the real estate sector.
Official data also showed on Thursday that consumer inflation cooled more than expected in March, pointing to sluggish demand conditions.
Analysts also say Western concerns about China’s overcapacity in some sectors could lead to further trade barriers for the global manufacturing hub.
According to the survey, China’s imports likely rose 1.4% in March, slower than the 3.5% increase recorded in the first two months combined.
In the same month, South Korea’s exports to China, a leading indicator of Chinese imports, rose 0.4% from a year earlier, improving from February’s 2.4% decline. Overall, Korean data shows that Chinese domestic demand remains tepid.
The median estimate in the survey predicted that China’s trade surplus will amount to $70.2 billion.
The data will be released on Friday.
(Reporting by Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)